Kortene er hentet på http://rasp.linta.de/SCANDINAVIA/index_en.html
Regional
Atmospheric
Soaring
Prediction
BLIPMAP FORECASTS
...Som i den grad er et besøg
værd ! Der er mange termikrelevante parametre og kortene dækker
Danmark. Sitet er eksperimentelt, men det ser vældig godt ud. Husk
at se mere på linket ovenfor.
Hvis der er nogle gode
danske svæveflyvemænd eller - kvinder der kunne have interesse i at lave
noget tilsvarende for Danmark, og i øvrigt er kode-, script-, htmlstærke -
og ejer en pc/server, - kan man se hvordan man kommer i gang her.
BLIPMAP stands for "Boundary Layer
Information Prediction MAP" -- a model for soaring weather forecast. It
has been developed by Dr. John W. (Jack)
Glendening ("DrJack"), who is meteorologist and sailplane pilot
himself. For the forecast maps on this webpage, I (Hendrik Hoeth) run the RASP
model locally on my server. In case you encounter any technical problems,
please mail me at rasp@linta.de.
More information on the meteorological model can be found on DrJack's RASP
website. There you also find a discussion forum for questions about the
model or problems with the forecast.
Maps for the current day are generated
every night for 0800, 1100, 1400 and 1700 CEST. Maps for the two following
days are generated during the early afternoon. Please check the time imprinted
on the maps.
Please note that all maps are experimental
and the underlying model is under development. Personally I find the maps
useful, but of course I assume no liability for anything and these maps cannot
substitute for a real meteorological pre-flight preparation. The pilot is
always responsible himself for everything he does.
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Thermal
Updraft Velocity & B/S Ratio
A
composite plot displaying the Thermal Updraft Velocity contours in
colors overlaid by a stipple representing the Buoyancy/Shear Ratio.
The stipple is heavy for B/S Ratios 0-4 and light for B/S Ratios 4-7.
The intent is to mark regions where a small B/S Ratio will make
thermals difficult (or impossible) to work, though that depends upon
pilot skill and circling radius.
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- Thermal
Updraft Velocity (W*)
-
Average
dry thermal updraft strength near mid-BL height. Subtract
glider descent rate to get average vario reading for cloudless
thermals. Updraft strengths will be stronger than this
forecast if convective clouds are present, since cloud condensation
adds buoyancy aloft (i.e. this negects "cloudsuck").
W* depends upon both the surface heating and the BL depth. MoreInfo
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-
The
temperature at a height of 2m above ground level. This can be
compared to observed surface temperatures as an indication of model
simulation accuracy; e.g. if observed surface temperatures are
significantly below those forecast, then soaring conditions will be
poorer than forecast. This parameter is obtained directly from
WRF model output and not from a BLIPMAP computation
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- Cumulus
Cloudbase where CuPotential>0
-
Combining
the previous two parameters, this depicts the Cumulus Cloudbase only
at locations where the Cumulus Potential parameter is positive.
This single plot can be used, instead of needing to look at both the
Cumulus Potential and Cumulus Cloudbase plots, if the threshold
Cumulus Potential empirically determined for your site approximately
equals the theoretical value of zero. For locations where the
actual threshold is greater than zero, as is often the case, this
depiction will over-estimate the extent of the cumulus region.
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-
This
parameter provides an additional means of evaluating the formation
of clouds within the BL and might be used either in conjunction with
or instead of the other cloud prediction parameters. It
assumes a very simple relationship between cloud cover percentage
and the maximum relative humidity within the BL. The cloud
base height is not predicted, but is expected to be below the BL Top
height. DrJack does not have a lot of faith in this prediction,
since the formula used is so simple, and expects its predictions to
be very approximate - but other meteorologists have used it and it
is better than nothing. Note: Since The the "BL Cloud
Cover", "Cumulus Potential", and "BL Extensive
CloudBase" are based upon fundamentally different model
predictions -- respectively the predicted maximum moisture in the BL,
the predicted surface moisture, and an explicit cloud-water
prediction -- they can yield somewhat differing predictions, e.g.
the "Cumulus Potential" can predict puffy cloud formation
when the "BL Cloud Cover" is zero or vice versa.
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-
Depth of
the layer mixed by thermals or (vertical) wind shear. This
parameter can be useful in determining which flight direction allows
better thermalling conditions when average surface elevations vary
greatly in differing directions. (But the same cautions
mentioned under "Height of BL Top" also apply.) It
is also an important determinant of thermals strength (as is the
Surface Heating). MoreInfo
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- Height
of Boundary Layer Top
-
Height
of the top of the mixing layer, which for thermal convection is the
average top of a dry thermal. Over flat terrain, maximum
thermalling heights will be lower due to the glider descent rate and
other factors. In the presence of clouds (which release
additional buoyancy aloft, creating "cloudsuck") the
updraft top will be above this forecast, but the maximum thermalling
height will then be limited by the cloud base (see the "Cloud
prediction parameters" section below). Further, when the
mixing results from shear turbulence rather than thermal mixing this
parameter is not useful for glider flying. NB: this BL Top is
not the height where the "Thermal Index" (TI) is zero,
which is a criteria used by many simple determinations of the BL top
- instead, the RASP BL Top uses a more sophisticated BL Top criteria
based on turbulent fluxes. MoreInfo
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- Height
of Critical Updraft Strength (Hcrit)
-
This
parameter estimates the height at which the average dry updraft
strength drops below 225 fpm and is expected to give better
quantitative numbers for the maximum cloudless thermalling height
than the BL Top height given above, especially when mixing results
from vertical wind shear rather than thermals. (Note: the
present assumptions tend to underpredict the max. thermalling height
for dry consitions.) In the presence of clouds the maximum
thermalling height may instead be limited by the cloud base (see the
"Cloud prediction parameters" section below). Being
for "dry" thermals, this parameter omits the effect of
"cloudsuck". MoreInfo
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- Cumulus
Potential
- This evaluates the
potential for small, non-extensive "puffy cloud" formation
in the BL, being the height difference between the surface-based LCL
(see below) and the BL top. Small cumulus clouds are (simply)
predicted when the parameter positive, but it is quite possible that
the threshold value is actually greater than zero for your location
so empirical evaluation is advised. Clouds can also occur with
negative values if the air is lifted up the indicated vertical
distance by flow up a small-scale ridge not resolved by the model's
smoothed topography. MoreInfo
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