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Regional   Atmospheric   Soaring   Prediction
BLIPMAP FORECASTS

...Som i den grad er et besøg værd !  Der er mange termikrelevante parametre og kortene dækker Danmark. Sitet er eksperimentelt, men det ser vældig godt ud. Husk at se mere på linket ovenfor.

Hvis der er nogle gode danske svæveflyvemænd eller - kvinder der kunne have interesse i at lave noget tilsvarende for Danmark, og i øvrigt er kode-, script-, htmlstærke - og ejer en pc/server, - kan man se hvordan man kommer i gang her. 

BLIPMAP stands for "Boundary Layer Information Prediction MAP" -- a model for soaring weather forecast. It has been developed by Dr. John W. (Jack) Glendening ("DrJack"), who is meteorologist and sailplane pilot himself. For the forecast maps on this webpage, I (Hendrik Hoeth) run the RASP model locally on my server. In case you encounter any technical problems, please mail me at rasp@linta.de. More information on the meteorological model can be found on DrJack's RASP website. There you also find a discussion forum for questions about the model or problems with the forecast.

Maps for the current day are generated every night for 0800, 1100, 1400 and 1700 CEST. Maps for the two following days are generated during the early afternoon. Please check the time imprinted on the maps.

Please note that all maps are experimental and the underlying model is under development. Personally I find the maps useful, but of course I assume no liability for anything and these maps cannot substitute for a real meteorological pre-flight preparation. The pilot is always responsible himself for everything he does.

Thermal Updraft Velocity & B/S Ratio                 

A composite plot displaying the Thermal Updraft Velocity contours in colors overlaid by a stipple representing the Buoyancy/Shear Ratio.  The stipple is heavy for B/S Ratios 0-4 and light for B/S Ratios 4-7.  The intent is to mark regions where a small B/S Ratio will make thermals difficult (or impossible) to work, though that depends upon pilot skill and circling radius. 

 

Thermal Updraft Velocity (W*)                 

Average dry thermal updraft strength near mid-BL height.  Subtract glider descent rate to get average vario reading for cloudless thermals.  Updraft strengths will be stronger than this forecast if convective clouds are present, since cloud condensation adds buoyancy aloft (i.e. this negects "cloudsuck").  W* depends upon both the surface heating and the BL depth.  MoreInfo

 

Surface Temperature                 

The temperature at a height of 2m above ground level.  This can be compared to observed surface temperatures as an indication of model simulation accuracy; e.g. if observed surface temperatures are significantly below those forecast, then soaring conditions will be poorer than forecast.  This parameter is obtained directly from WRF model output and not from a BLIPMAP computation

 

Cumulus Cloudbase where CuPotential>0                 

Combining the previous two parameters, this depicts the Cumulus Cloudbase only at locations where the Cumulus Potential parameter is positive.  This single plot can be used, instead of needing to look at both the Cumulus Potential and Cumulus Cloudbase plots, if the threshold Cumulus Potential empirically determined for your site approximately equals the theoretical value of zero.  For locations where the actual threshold is greater than zero, as is often the case, this depiction will over-estimate the extent of the cumulus region. 

 

 
BL Cloud Cover                 

This parameter provides an additional means of evaluating the formation of clouds within the BL and might be used either in conjunction with or instead of the other cloud prediction parameters.  It assumes a very simple relationship between cloud cover percentage and the maximum relative humidity within the BL.  The cloud base height is not predicted, but is expected to be below the BL Top height.  DrJack does not have a lot of faith in this prediction, since the formula used is so simple, and expects its predictions to be very approximate - but other meteorologists have used it and it is better than nothing.  Note: Since The the "BL Cloud Cover", "Cumulus Potential", and "BL Extensive CloudBase" are based upon fundamentally different model predictions -- respectively the predicted maximum moisture in the BL, the predicted surface moisture, and an explicit cloud-water prediction -- they can yield somewhat differing predictions, e.g. the "Cumulus Potential" can predict puffy cloud formation when the "BL Cloud Cover" is zero or vice versa.

 

Boundary Layer Depth                 

Depth of the layer mixed by thermals or (vertical) wind shear.  This parameter can be useful in determining which flight direction allows better thermalling conditions when average surface elevations vary greatly in differing directions.  (But the same cautions mentioned under "Height of BL Top" also apply.)  It is also an important determinant of thermals strength (as is the Surface Heating).  MoreInfo

 

Height of Boundary Layer Top                  

Height of the top of the mixing layer, which for thermal convection is the average top of a dry thermal.  Over flat terrain, maximum thermalling heights will be lower due to the glider descent rate and other factors.  In the presence of clouds (which release additional buoyancy aloft, creating "cloudsuck") the updraft top will be above this forecast, but the maximum thermalling height will then be limited by the cloud base (see the "Cloud prediction parameters" section below).  Further, when the mixing results from shear turbulence rather than thermal mixing this parameter is not useful for glider flying.  NB: this BL Top is not the height where the "Thermal Index" (TI) is zero, which is a criteria used by many simple determinations of the BL top - instead, the RASP BL Top uses a more sophisticated BL Top criteria based on turbulent fluxes.  MoreInfo

 

Height of Critical Updraft Strength (Hcrit)                 

This parameter estimates the height at which the average dry updraft strength drops below 225 fpm and is expected to give better quantitative numbers for the maximum cloudless thermalling height than the BL Top height given above, especially when mixing results from vertical wind shear rather than thermals.  (Note: the present assumptions tend to underpredict the max. thermalling height for dry consitions.) In the presence of clouds the maximum thermalling height may instead be limited by the cloud base (see the "Cloud prediction parameters" section below).  Being for "dry" thermals, this parameter omits the effect of "cloudsuck".  MoreInfo

 

Cumulus Potential                 
This evaluates the potential for small, non-extensive "puffy cloud" formation in the BL, being the height difference between the surface-based LCL (see below) and the BL top.  Small cumulus clouds are (simply) predicted when the parameter positive, but it is quite possible that the threshold value is actually greater than zero for your location so empirical evaluation is advised.  Clouds can also occur with negative values if the air is lifted up the indicated vertical distance by flow up a small-scale ridge not resolved by the model's smoothed topography.  MoreInfo